Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3643 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 3643 DFW 08:26 → MAF 09:48 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest OO 5010 DFW 16:57 → MAF 18:19 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3643 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:26	MAF 09:48	12%	2%	2.5%	85%
MQ 3469 Envoy	DFW 10:06	MAF 11:28	15%	2%	2.8%	no record
MQ 3512 Envoy	DFW 12:31	MAF 13:54	16%	3%	2.6%	no record
AA 5013 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 07:25	MAF 08:50	17%	6%	1.7%	81%
AA 3653 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:36	MAF 16:53	20%	4%	2.8%	80%
MQ 3857 Envoy	DFW 22:45	MAF 00:10	24%	5%	3.7%	no record
AA 4172 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:08	MAF 21:30	24%	5%	3.2%	85%
AA 3541 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:35	MAF 21:53	24%	5%	2.9%	77%
AA 4279 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:27	MAF 19:50	24%	5%	3.4%	83%
OO 5010 SkyWest	DFW 16:57	MAF 18:19	26%	10%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON