Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 2469 at 18:48, with a 48% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2469 American Flight history →	DFW 18:48	MDT 22:59	48%	16%	1.4%	54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Harrisburg is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:21 → MDT 14:17DL 1354	7h 57m	100%	82%
American Details →	DFW 04:54 → CLT 08:29AA 1091	2h 51m Charlotte	CLT 11:20 → MDT 13:12AA 6134 · flown by Piedmont	7h 18m	97%	81%
United Details →	DFW 07:20 → IAD 11:26UA 2639	1h 19m Dulles	IAD 12:45 → MDT 13:50UA 4372 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 30m	95%	79%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	2h 28m Charlotte	CLT 13:12 → MDT 15:00AA 5832 · flown by Piedmont	7h 00m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37DL 2857	6h 31m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → MDT 13:17DL 4717 · flown by Endeavor	5h 32m	94%	75%
American Details →	DFW 09:38 → PHL 14:00AA 402	3h 50m Philadelphia	PHL 17:50 → MDT 18:57AA 5949 · flown by Piedmont	8h 19m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	DFW 16:23 → ATL 19:33DL 921	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → MDT 23:53DL 1283	6h 30m	100%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DFW 17:15 → IAD 21:24UA 1240	1h 02m Dulles	IAD 22:26 → MDT 23:30UA 4964 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 15m	66%	51%
American Details →	DFW 16:17 → PHL 20:52AA 1945	1h 03m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → MDT 23:10AA 5944 · flown by Piedmont	5h 53m	62%	46%
United Details →	DFW 17:47 → ORD 20:30UA 1564	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 21:55 → MDT 00:44 +1UA 1719	5h 57m	73%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON