Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3189 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–51%.

Safest bet that day AA 3189 DFW 05:00 → MIA 08:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2206 DFW 18:10 → MIA 22:05 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3189 American Flight history →	DFW 05:00	MIA 08:55	11%	4%	1.0%	84%
AA 3055 American Flight history →	DFW 06:00	MIA 10:00	19%	5%	2.7%	81%
AA 3290 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	MIA 11:11	24%	4%	2.6%	82%
AA 1219 American	DFW 08:54	MIA 12:55	26%	6%	3.9%	no record
AA 1454 American	DFW 10:22	MIA 14:23	37%	8%	5.6%	no record
AA 9791 American	DFW 21:29	MIA 01:23	41%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 2461 American	DFW 12:41	MIA 16:42	42%	8%	3.9%	no record
MQ 9866 Envoy	DFW 20:11	MIA 00:06	44%	9%	2.0%	no record
AA 2090 American Flight history →	DFW 20:42	MIA 00:37	45%	11%	1.1%	56%
AA 3308 American Flight history →	DFW 16:30	MIA 20:35	46%	13%	1.7%	56%
AA 942 American	DFW 16:14	MIA 20:15	47%	12%	1.3%	no record
F9 2136 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:07	MIA 17:12	48%	16%	3.9%	70%worse than usual
AA 2050 American Flight history →	DFW 17:52	MIA 22:02	48%	13%	1.7%	63%worse than usual
MQ 9865 Envoy	DFW 18:26	MIA 22:33	48%	10%	3.0%	no record
F9 2676 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:58	MIA 22:02	49%	19%	1.9%	70%worse than usual
AA 1167 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	MIA 18:24	50%	13%	3.0%	46%
AA 2206 American Flight history →	DFW 18:10	MIA 22:05	51%	13%	1.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON