Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2581 at 08:56 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 2581 DFW 08:56 → MKE 11:21 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1234 DFW 19:15 → MKE 21:40 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2581 American Flight history →	DFW 08:56	MKE 11:21	22%	6%	1.2%	80%
AA 869 American Flight history →	DFW 14:21	MKE 16:46	35%	10%	1.3%	71%
AA 1234 American Flight history →	DFW 19:15	MKE 21:40	43%	14%	1.7%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON