Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, MQ 3672 at 09:26, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3672 Envoy	DFW 09:26	MSO 11:55	14%	4%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	92%	85%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	1h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest	6h 15m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276	3h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSO 14:38DL 362	8h 43m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543	3h 24m Seattle	SEA 12:09 → MSO 14:35AS 660	9h 11m	99%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DFW 09:00 → SEA 11:20AS 365	49m Seattle	SEA 12:09 → MSO 14:35AS 660	6h 35m	48%	34%
United Details →	DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303	1h 11m Denver	DEN 19:31 → MSO 21:40UA 1092	5h 50m	60%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON