Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1276 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 1276 DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2806 DFW 18:51 → MSP 21:21 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1276 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:55	MSP 09:23	9%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 2220 American Flight history →	DFW 06:54	MSP 09:21	14%	5%	1.0%	83%
DL 2972 Delta Flight history →	DFW 11:16	MSP 13:44	17%	3%	0.9%	84%
DL 1629 Delta	DFW 15:18	MSP 17:38	24%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1668 American	DFW 12:06	MSP 14:42	27%	8%	1.2%	no record
F9 3224 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:28	MSP 18:00	30%	12%	1.5%	77%
DL 1625 Delta	DFW 18:34	MSP 20:54	31%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 2406 American Flight history →	DFW 16:04	MSP 18:42	33%	12%	1.2%	62%
AA 3149 American Flight history →	DFW 21:30	MSP 23:57	38%	12%	2.2%	44%
AA 2806 American Flight history →	DFW 18:51	MSP 21:21	39%	14%	1.3%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON