Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2157 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 2157 DFW 07:41 → MSY 09:23 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 2291 DFW 17:15 → MSY 18:57 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2157 American Flight history →	DFW 07:41	MSY 09:23	16%	4%	1.5%	79%
AA 1684 American	DFW 08:54	MSY 10:36	20%	5%	1.7%	no record
AA 1650 American	DFW 09:45	MSY 11:26	24%	5%	1.9%	no record
F9 4994 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:51	MSY 16:55	31%	11%	3.0%	72%
AA 2627 American	DFW 13:34	MSY 15:15	32%	8%	2.9%	no record
AA 1455 American Flight history →	DFW 21:33	MSY 23:16	39%	11%	2.0%	59%
AA 3254 American Flight history →	DFW 16:12	MSY 17:54	39%	10%	2.8%	56%
AA 2237 American Flight history →	DFW 19:56	MSY 21:37	40%	12%	2.1%	59%
AA 2291 American Flight history →	DFW 17:15	MSY 18:57	42%	11%	3.0%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON