Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OH 5653 at 12:37, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5653 PSA	DFW 12:37	MYR 16:23	28%	9%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 04:54 → CLT 08:29AA 1091	2h 51m Charlotte	CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	6h 42m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	6h 40m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DFW 16:23 → ATL 19:33DL 921	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074	6h 32m	100%	73%
United Details →	DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695	2h 03m Chicago	ORD 11:53 → MYR 15:03UA 623	6h 55m	98%	73%
American Details →	DFW 09:38 → PHL 14:00AA 402	2h 19m Philadelphia	PHL 16:19 → MYR 18:20AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont	7h 49m	92%	72%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	3h 56m Charlotte	CLT 14:40 → MYR 15:53AA 1687	7h 53m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:17 → ATL 15:35DL 961	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	5h 50m	97%	67%
American Details →	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	3h 13m Charlotte	CLT 18:49 → MYR 19:57AA 1417	7h 02m	98%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	54m Charlotte	CLT 16:30 → MYR 17:46AA 2943	4h 51m	72%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON