Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4946 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–46%.

Safest bet that day AA 4946 DFW 07:12 → OKC 08:23 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 1458 DFW 21:29 → OKC 22:33 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4946 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 07:12	OKC 08:23	15%	6%	0.9%	100%worse than usual
AA 1902 American Flight history →	DFW 09:08	OKC 10:20	21%	6%	1.2%	82%
AA 3099 American	DFW 10:36	OKC 11:49	22%	8%	1.1%	no record
MQ 3555 Envoy	DFW 18:43	OKC 19:54	25%	8%	1.4%	no record
AA 2929 American Flight history →	DFW 13:34	OKC 14:46	27%	10%	1.2%	77%
AA 2832 American Flight history →	DFW 14:58	OKC 16:10	32%	13%	1.2%	65%
AA 2812 American Flight history →	DFW 16:34	OKC 17:49	33%	16%	1.6%	27%
AA 2734 American Flight history →	DFW 17:21	OKC 18:33	39%	15%	1.3%	47%
AA 1706 American	DFW 22:58	OKC 00:12	42%	15%	1.2%	no record
AA 1458 American Flight history →	DFW 21:29	OKC 22:33	46%	15%	1.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON