Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2135 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–47%.

Safest bet that day AA 2135 DFW 07:15 → OMA 09:13 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2628 DFW 21:30 → OMA 23:22 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2135 American	DFW 07:15	OMA 09:13	15%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 2823 American Flight history →	DFW 09:30	OMA 11:28	23%	7%	1.1%	70%
AA 2269 American Flight history →	DFW 14:21	OMA 16:22	30%	11%	1.2%	75%
AA 2270 American Flight history →	DFW 17:11	OMA 19:09	42%	12%	1.8%	54%
AA 2628 American Flight history →	DFW 21:30	OMA 23:22	47%	15%	2.3%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON