Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2282 at 10:14 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 2282 DFW 10:14 → ORF 14:29 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 1379 DFW 19:59 → ORF 00:03 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2282 American Flight history →	DFW 10:14	ORF 14:29	23%	7%	1.2%	76%
AA 2288 American Flight history →	DFW 14:13	ORF 18:29	33%	11%	1.4%	76%
AA 1379 American	DFW 19:59	ORF 00:03	41%	12%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON