Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2655 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–46%.

Safest bet that day AA 2655 DFW 08:45 → PDX 10:53 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 2298 DFW 21:30 → PDX 23:34 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2655 American Flight history →	DFW 08:45	PDX 10:53	22%	4%	1.0%	75%
AS 303 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 14:05	PDX 16:05	26%	4%	1.0%	77%
AA 2496 American Flight history →	DFW 11:33	PDX 13:41	32%	5%	0.9%	76%
AS 392 Alaska	DFW 18:41	PDX 20:42	33%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2028 American Flight history →	DFW 15:03	PDX 17:13	37%	7%	1.1%	51%
AA 685 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	PDX 18:41	38%	9%	1.1%	53%
AA 2298 American Flight history →	DFW 21:30	PDX 23:34	46%	9%	1.1%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DFW 14:31 → SLC 16:18DL 2800	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	5h 47m	75%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON