Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 415 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–45%.

Safest bet that day AA 415 DFW 07:30 → PHL 11:52 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 2542 DFW 20:19 → PHL 00:35 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 415 American Flight history →	DFW 07:30	PHL 11:52	15%	4%	1.0%	83%
AA 2255 American	DFW 08:28	PHL 12:45	18%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 402 American Flight history →	DFW 09:38	PHL 14:00	24%	7%	1.3%	74%
F9 2970 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:56	PHL 14:21	31%	12%	1.8%	72%
AA 3147 American	DFW 12:11	PHL 16:28	33%	10%	1.1%	no record
AA 891 American	DFW 13:39	PHL 18:13	35%	12%	1.1%	no record
AA 2213 American	DFW 14:33	PHL 19:10	39%	14%	1.1%	no record
AA 1945 American Flight history →	DFW 16:17	PHL 20:52	41%	18%	1.2%	63%
AA 3242 American Flight history →	DFW 18:35	PHL 22:57	42%	16%	1.5%	47%
AA 2542 American Flight history →	DFW 20:19	PHL 00:35	45%	12%	1.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON