Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1583 at 07:24 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 1583 DFW 07:24 → PIT 11:07 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 680 DFW 17:55 → PIT 21:48 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1583 American Flight history →	DFW 07:24	PIT 11:07	14%	5%	1.0%	89%
AA 2664 American Flight history →	DFW 10:34	PIT 14:19	17%	7%	1.0%	80%
AA 1868 American Flight history →	DFW 14:59	PIT 18:42	27%	10%	1.0%	72%
AA 680 American Flight history →	DFW 17:55	PIT 21:48	36%	11%	1.1%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON