Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3454 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–32%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3454 DFW 08:36 → PNS 10:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5554 DFW 18:35 → PNS 20:36 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3454 Envoy	DFW 08:36	PNS 10:34	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4114 Envoy	DFW 15:45	PNS 17:45	16%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2863 American	DFW 11:03	PNS 12:59	27%	11%	1.3%	no record
AA 2328 American Flight history →	DFW 12:49	PNS 14:47	29%	10%	1.2%	73%
OH 5554 PSA	DFW 18:35	PNS 20:36	32%	16%	3.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON