tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2312 American Flight history → DFW 13:38 PWM 18:27 35% 8% 0.9% 56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DFW 06:00 → EWR 10:29UA 1847 1h 30m Newark EWR 11:59 → PWM 13:25UA 3685 · flown by Republic 6h 25m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 10:21 → PWM 13:00DL 2479 6h 40m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 56m Detroit DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426 5h 35m 92% 82%
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773 3h 19m Denver DEN 10:12 → PWM 16:18UA 372 9h 33m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:02 → DCA 10:59AA 1623 3h 52m Washington DCA 14:51 → PWM 16:44AA 1423 8h 42m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317 2h 16m Charlotte CLT 13:00 → PWM 15:24AA 1747 7h 24m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → DFW 06:00 → LGA 10:29AA 2925 3h 50m New York LGA 14:19 → PWM 15:45AA 2700 8h 45m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → DFW 09:38 → PHL 14:00AA 402 2h 54m Philadelphia PHL 16:54 → PWM 18:34AA 6125 · flown by Piedmont 7h 56m 94% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DFW 17:15 → IAD 21:24UA 1240 54m Dulles IAD 22:18 → PWM 00:25 +1UA 3459 · flown by Republic 6h 10m 56% 50%
UnitedDetails → DFW 14:15 → ORD 16:57UA 2160 1h 11m Chicago ORD 18:08 → PWM 21:41UA 1401 6h 26m 67% 33%
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:36 → ORD 18:54AA 1290 1h 02m Chicago ORD 19:56 → PWM 23:26AA 4504 · flown by Republic 5h 50m 45% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON