Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2683 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 47–48%.

Safest bet that day AA 2683 DFW 06:56 → RDU 10:49 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 542 DFW 20:04 → RDU 23:48 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2683 American Flight history →	DFW 06:56	RDU 10:49	15%	5%	0.9%	84%
F9 3330 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:35	RDU 12:36	17%	7%	1.2%	88%
AA 2693 American Flight history →	DFW 09:31	RDU 13:24	25%	6%	1.1%	72%
AA 1888 American Flight history →	DFW 14:45	RDU 18:40	38%	11%	1.1%	71%
AA 2091 American Flight history →	DFW 14:10	RDU 17:51	39%	10%	1.2%	85%worse than usual
AA 979 American Flight history →	DFW 17:43	RDU 21:34	47%	14%	1.2%	62%
AA 542 American Flight history →	DFW 20:04	RDU 23:48	48%	13%	1.3%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON