Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1794 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 43–53%.

Safest bet that day AA 1794 DFW 07:12 → SAN 08:19 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1511 DFW 20:48 → SAN 21:57 · 53% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1794 American	DFW 07:12	SAN 08:19	26%	5%	1.3%	no record
AS 690 Alaska	DFW 08:05	SAN 09:11	31%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 2034 American Flight history →	DFW 09:22	SAN 10:30	34%	7%	1.1%	73%
AS 545 Alaska	DFW 15:25	SAN 16:34	37%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 3109 American	DFW 11:12	SAN 12:21	39%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 1769 American	DFW 13:19	SAN 14:29	39%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 2361 American Flight history →	DFW 14:48	SAN 15:58	40%	10%	1.2%	69%
AA 2266 American	DFW 16:45	SAN 17:52	43%	12%	1.3%	no record
AA 1789 American	DFW 17:50	SAN 18:57	47%	12%	1.5%	no record
F9 1425 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:56	SAN 19:01	49%	16%	1.6%	66%worse than usual
AA 2568 American Flight history →	DFW 22:55	SAN 23:59	50%	13%	1.4%	56%
AA 1243 American Flight history →	DFW 19:02	SAN 20:03	50%	14%	1.5%	58%
AA 1511 American	DFW 20:48	SAN 21:57	53%	13%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON