Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 4039 at 09:57 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–49%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4039 DFW 09:57 → SAT 11:13 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 546 DFW 19:55 → SAT 21:03 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4039 Envoy	DFW 09:57	SAT 11:13	17%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 2759 American Flight history →	DFW 08:43	SAT 10:00	20%	6%	1.1%	80%
AA 1836 American Flight history →	DFW 07:38	SAT 08:46	22%	5%	1.1%	85%
AA 3899 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:22	SAT 18:38	25%	6%	1.2%	62%
AA 413 American Flight history →	DFW 10:34	SAT 11:51	26%	8%	0.9%	71%
AA 791 American	DFW 13:51	SAT 15:11	26%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 2768 American	DFW 12:24	SAT 13:47	26%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 1961 American Flight history →	DFW 14:26	SAT 15:43	30%	11%	0.9%	67%
AA 2374 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	SAT 17:49	38%	13%	0.9%	53%
AA 2368 American Flight history →	DFW 18:27	SAT 19:45	42%	15%	1.1%	59%
AA 3097 American Flight history →	DFW 21:56	SAT 23:04	46%	13%	1.1%	51%
AA 1406 American Flight history →	DFW 20:48	SAT 22:00	46%	14%	1.0%	59%
AA 1599 American Flight history →	DFW 22:50	SAT 23:58	47%	11%	1.0%	41%
AA 546 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	SAT 21:03	49%	14%	1.1%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON