tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 1822 at 10:03, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1822 American DFW 10:03 SBA 11:33 23% 6% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291 1h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 6h 14m 91% 80%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 14:05 → PDX 16:05AS 303 1h 43m Portland PDX 17:48 → SBA 20:04AS 2029 · flown by Horizon 7h 59m 89% 79%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474 2h 30m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → SBA 11:52AA 2928 6h 44m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47UA 790 2h 42m San Francisco SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578 7h 52m 98% 68%
UnitedDetails → DFW 15:37 → SFO 17:45UA 2413 3h 38m San Francisco SFO 21:23 → SBA 22:45UA 2866 9h 08m 96% 68%
AmericanDetails → DFW 17:38 → PHX 18:17AA 2047 2h 30m Phoenix PHX 20:47 → SBA 22:35AA 1855 6h 57m 87% 53%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303 1h 03m Denver DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59UA 2479 6h 09m 55% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON