Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3791 at 09:31 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–46%.

Safest bet that day AA 3791 DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2212 DFW 18:27 → SDF 21:48 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3791 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:31	SDF 12:48	10%	2%	1.1%	94%
MQ 4051 Envoy	DFW 08:02	SDF 11:12	11%	2%	1.0%	no record
AA 3629 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:55	SDF 18:03	18%	4%	1.0%	74%
MQ 3417 Envoy	DFW 20:14	SDF 23:27	25%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 2813 American	DFW 12:08	SDF 15:19	34%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 2049 American Flight history →	DFW 15:48	SDF 19:08	41%	12%	1.0%	46%
AA 2212 American	DFW 18:27	SDF 21:48	46%	14%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON