Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 804 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–51%.

Safest bet that day DL 804 DFW 06:30 → SEA 08:46 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2009 DFW 19:31 → SEA 21:40 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 804 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:30	SEA 08:46	12%	3%	1.2%	86%
AS 543 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 06:24	SEA 08:45	18%	3%	1.2%	81%
AA 707 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	SEA 09:25	24%	4%	1.2%	83%
AA 767 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	SEA 10:50	27%	5%	1.2%	74%
AS 365 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 09:00	SEA 11:20	32%	4%	1.1%	77%
AA 717 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	SEA 13:03	32%	6%	1.2%	76%
AA 757 American Flight history →	DFW 12:17	SEA 14:31	36%	7%	1.4%	75%worse than usual
DL 1806 Delta	DFW 17:35	SEA 19:46	37%	8%	1.4%	no record
AS 321 Alaska	DFW 15:58	SEA 18:05	40%	8%	1.4%	no record
AA 727 American Flight history →	DFW 14:33	SEA 16:47	40%	10%	1.3%	57%
AS 550 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 20:45	SEA 23:05	45%	9%	1.3%	66%worse than usual
AA 1487 American Flight history →	DFW 22:41	SEA 00:57	45%	10%	1.2%	47%
AS 341 Alaska	DFW 18:14	SEA 20:21	47%	9%	1.4%	no record
AA 1483 American	DFW 17:38	SEA 20:00	48%	11%	1.6%	no record
AA 2009 American Flight history →	DFW 19:31	SEA 21:40	51%	11%	1.3%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	1h 06m Denver	DEN 07:59 → SEA 09:48UA 1348	6h 03m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON