Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4009 at 08:21 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 4009 DFW 08:21 → SHV 09:31 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 6245 DFW 19:08 → SHV 20:17 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4009 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:21	SHV 09:31	9%	3%	1.6%	92%
MQ 3479 Envoy	DFW 12:27	SHV 13:37	13%	4%	1.3%	no record
OO 6331 SkyWest	DFW 10:04	SHV 11:13	18%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 4902 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 21:35	SHV 22:44	24%	10%	0.9%	91%worse than usual
AA 6410 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 17:19	SHV 18:28	29%	13%	1.1%	75%
AA 6245 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 19:08	SHV 20:17	29%	12%	0.9%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON