Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1686 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 1686 DFW 06:58 → SNA 08:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 806 DFW 19:15 → SNA 20:22 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1686 American Flight history →	DFW 06:58	SNA 08:15	15%	4%	1.0%	90%
AA 2114 American Flight history →	DFW 08:27	SNA 09:43	20%	4%	1.0%	78%
AA 1939 American	DFW 09:35	SNA 10:50	23%	5%	1.1%	no record
F9 3325 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:27	SNA 09:44	25%	7%	1.1%	68%
AA 1933 American	DFW 11:46	SNA 13:03	27%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2465 American Flight history →	DFW 12:34	SNA 13:52	27%	5%	1.0%	84%worse than usual
AA 2659 American Flight history →	DFW 14:45	SNA 16:02	29%	5%	1.1%	80%
AA 348 American Flight history →	DFW 21:16	SNA 22:24	31%	4%	1.4%	74%
AA 3223 American Flight history →	DFW 16:32	SNA 17:50	32%	6%	1.2%	80%worse than usual
AA 806 American Flight history →	DFW 19:15	SNA 20:22	39%	6%	1.5%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON