Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, MQ 4072 at 13:04, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 4072 Envoy	DFW 13:04	SRQ 17:03	30%	7%	3.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:50 → ATL 09:00DL 401	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 10:47 → SRQ 12:26DL 3104	5h 36m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 13:42 → SRQ 15:21DL 3115	7h 36m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	DFW 16:22 → ATL 19:32DL 921	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	7h 23m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 15:34 → SRQ 17:13DL 3109	6h 07m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:50 → ATL 17:14DL 414	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → SRQ 21:32DL 1057	6h 42m	95%	70%
United Details →	DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	7h 04m	95%	69%
American Details →	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	3h 31m Charlotte	CLT 19:07 → SRQ 21:02AA 2604	8h 07m	99%	64%
American Details →	DFW 17:06 → MIA 21:12AA 3308	1h 42m Miami	MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	5h 53m	81%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DFW 18:32 → ATL 21:59DL 374	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	5h 13m	72%	56%
American Details →	DFW 04:54 → CLT 08:29AA 1091	47m Charlotte	CLT 09:16 → SRQ 11:10AA 1452	5h 16m	68%	51%
American Details →	DFW 17:52 → MIA 22:02AA 2050	52m Miami	MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	5h 07m	36%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON