tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 421 at 19:25, with a 47% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 421 American Flight history → DFW 19:25 SYR 23:40 47% 14% 1.1% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Syracuse on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Syracuse is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773 2h 59m Denver DEN 09:52 → SYR 15:15UA 211 8h 30m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 12:19 → SYR 14:29DL 2991 8h 09m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:30 → PHL 11:52AA 415 1h 20m Philadelphia PHL 13:12 → SYR 14:34AA 5924 · flown by Piedmont 6h 04m 91% 78%
UnitedDetails → DFW 07:20 → IAD 11:26UA 2639 1h 09m Dulles IAD 12:35 → SYR 14:04UA 4499 · flown by GoJet 5h 44m 93% 77%
DeltaDetails → DFW 08:15 → JFK 12:59DL 454 1h 35m New York JFK 14:34 → SYR 16:11DL 5328 · flown by Endeavor 6h 56m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → SYR 17:59DL 2690 6h 53m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317 2h 52m Charlotte CLT 13:36 → SYR 15:34AA 1950 7h 34m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → DFW 16:23 → ATL 19:33DL 921 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → SYR 23:48DL 2123 6h 25m 100% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DFW 17:15 → IAD 21:24UA 1240 1h 01m Dulles IAD 22:25 → SYR 23:59UA 4856 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 44m 65% 47%
JetBlueDetails → DFW 11:28 → FLL 15:24B6 482 1h 06m Fort Lauderdale FLL 16:30 → SYR 19:40B6 1738 7h 12m 68% 47%
AmericanDetails → DFW 17:15 → DCA 21:31AA 472 1h 08m Washington DCA 22:39 → SYR 00:06 +1AA 5456 · flown by PSA 5h 51m 63% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON