Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2516 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 48–49%.

Safest bet that day AA 2516 DFW 06:58 → TPA 10:32 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2401 DFW 18:30 → TPA 22:08 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2516 American Flight history →	DFW 06:58	TPA 10:32	13%	5%	1.2%	84%
AA 3112 American Flight history →	DFW 09:59	TPA 13:47	23%	6%	1.6%	76%
F9 2402 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:18	TPA 19:09	32%	9%	1.3%	74%
AA 1957 American	DFW 12:40	TPA 16:15	32%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 2512 American Flight history →	DFW 15:14	TPA 19:03	41%	10%	1.2%	67%
AA 2256 American Flight history →	DFW 18:25	TPA 22:13	48%	13%	1.3%	37%
AA 2401 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	TPA 22:08	49%	13%	1.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON