Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4063 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–45%.

Safest bet that day AA 4063 DFW 06:57 → TUL 08:15 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2014 DFW 20:49 → TUL 22:11 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4063 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 06:57	TUL 08:15	13%	3%	2.0%	95%
AA 2348 American Flight history →	DFW 08:44	TUL 10:02	21%	5%	1.3%	80%
AA 2352 American Flight history →	DFW 10:37	TUL 11:54	25%	7%	1.4%	87%worse than usual
AA 3715 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:36	TUL 19:54	27%	6%	1.6%	60%
AA 2851 American Flight history →	DFW 14:10	TUL 15:27	33%	9%	1.4%	85%worse than usual
AA 2830 American	DFW 16:27	TUL 17:48	37%	12%	1.7%	no record
AA 531 American Flight history →	DFW 22:38	TUL 23:47	43%	10%	1.4%	62%
AA 2014 American Flight history →	DFW 20:49	TUL 22:11	45%	13%	1.4%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON