Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, MQ 4199 at 12:05, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 4199 Envoy	DFW 12:05	TVC 16:05	20%	4%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	91%	79%
United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	2h 49m Denver	DEN 09:42 → TVC 14:20UA 2420	7h 35m	100%	79%
American Details →	DFW 08:57 → ORD 11:23AA 328	55m Chicago	ORD 12:18 → TVC 14:39AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	4h 42m	80%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DFW 17:47 → ORD 20:30UA 1564	56m Chicago	ORD 21:26 → TVC 23:37UA 2071	4h 50m	45%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON