Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5593 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 5593 DFW 07:51 → TYS 11:13 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1081 DFW 20:41 → TYS 23:51 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5593 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 07:51	TYS 11:13	14%	5%	1.2%	86%
AA 2544 American Flight history →	DFW 09:40	TYS 12:53	18%	5%	1.9%	82%
AA 5309 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 16:54	TYS 20:11	28%	11%	1.3%	70%
AA 5346 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 18:29	TYS 21:43	29%	11%	1.4%	73%
AA 2550 American Flight history →	DFW 13:38	TYS 17:01	30%	9%	1.5%	67%
AA 1081 American Flight history →	DFW 20:41	TYS 23:51	39%	13%	1.4%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON