Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2460 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 2460 DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AA 1201 DFW 19:05 → VPS 21:05 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2460 American Flight history →	DFW 09:30	VPS 11:28	21%	6%	1.4%	74%
AA 2501 American Flight history →	DFW 12:46	VPS 14:43	30%	9%	1.4%	66%
AA 2673 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	VPS 18:38	36%	11%	1.6%	49%
AA 1201 American Flight history →	DFW 19:05	VPS 21:05	41%	12%	1.9%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON