Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 4111 at 07:17 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–37%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4111 DFW 07:17 → XNA 08:39 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1197 DFW 19:53 → XNA 21:16 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4111 Envoy	DFW 07:17	XNA 08:39	11%	4%	1.8%	no record
MQ 3603 Envoy	DFW 08:17	XNA 09:39	12%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 3803 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:35	XNA 13:57	15%	4%	1.1%	91%
AA 3693 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 22:30	XNA 23:47	22%	6%	1.0%	77%
AA 4101 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:20	XNA 22:45	23%	7%	1.0%	71%
AA 2025 American	DFW 09:37	XNA 11:00	23%	8%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3605 Envoy	DFW 18:02	XNA 19:24	23%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 1812 American	DFW 14:17	XNA 15:40	27%	12%	1.2%	no record
AA 2150 American	DFW 16:36	XNA 18:01	32%	14%	1.2%	no record
AA 1197 American Flight history →	DFW 19:53	XNA 21:16	37%	16%	1.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON