Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2854 American Flight history →	DSM 07:04	CLT 10:30	11%	5%	1.3%	90%
AA 2962 American Flight history →	DSM 10:52	CLT 14:15	18%	5%	1.0%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190	4h 45m	94%	83%
United Details →	DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982	3h 21m Houston	IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa	8h 42m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819	6h 07m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	1h 38m Detroit	DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24DL 2684	5h 16m	92%	80%
American Details →	DSM 07:01 → LGA 10:50AA 4795 · flown by Republic	1h 20m New York	LGA 12:10 → CLT 14:14AA 1150	6h 13m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	3h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821	6h 55m	98%	79%
American Details →	DSM 06:57 → ORD 08:33AA 4383 · flown by Republic	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 11:45 → CLT 14:41AA 3021	6h 44m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 21:22 → CLT 22:32DL 8853	7h 07m	100%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DSM 18:03 → MSP 19:15DL 5020 · flown by Endeavor	59m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	4h 41m	73%	60%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor	51m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429	4h 30m	66%	55%
American Details →	DSM 17:11 → DFW 19:07AA 1664	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:19 → CLT 23:53AA 460	5h 42m	69%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON