tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OH 5238 PSA DSM 05:58 DCA 09:30 12% 5% 1.8% no record
YX 4435 Republic DSM 14:20 DCA 18:09 15% 5% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DSM 06:57 → ORD 08:33AA 4383 · flown by Republic 1h 18m Chicago ORD 09:51 → DCA 12:57AA 315 5h 00m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 2h 13m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 5h 58m 93% 81%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:46DL 1798 6h 05m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → DSM 07:01 → LGA 10:50AA 4795 · flown by Republic 2h 38m New York LGA 13:28 → DCA 14:59AA 4773 · flown by Republic 6h 58m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → DSM 08:05 → ORD 09:35UA 2668 1h 18m Chicago ORD 10:53 → DCA 13:53UA 202 4h 48m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 6h 15m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor 1h 01m Detroit DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476 4h 20m 88% 77%
AmericanDetails → DSM 06:41 → DFW 08:48AA 2326 3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414 8h 18m 97% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:01 → IAH 17:25UA 6117 · flown by Mesa 48m Houston IAH 18:13 → DCA 22:33UA 8150 6h 32m 70% 49%
DeltaDetails → DSM 17:34 → DTW 20:27DL 5305 · flown by Endeavor 57m Detroit DTW 21:24 → DCA 22:59DL 2073 4h 25m 61% 42%
AmericanDetails → DSM 17:11 → DFW 19:07AA 1664 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 5h 48m 50% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON