Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3440 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 3440 DSM 06:45 → DEN 07:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1781 DSM 17:17 → DEN 18:23 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3440 Southwest	DSM 06:45	DEN 07:41	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1348 United	DSM 05:40	DEN 06:37	9%	4%	0.8%	no record
OO 5950 SkyWest	DSM 11:40	DEN 13:02	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1521 United Flight history →	DSM 09:14	DEN 10:20	14%	4%	0.7%	88%
F9 1677 Frontier Flight history →	DSM 11:19	DEN 12:22	19%	7%	0.7%	81%
UA 2064 United	DSM 13:25	DEN 14:50	23%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 4642 Southwest	DSM 19:20	DEN 20:15	39%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 1781 United Flight history →	DSM 17:17	DEN 18:23	48%	14%	0.9%	66%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON