tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 1982 at 06:20, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1982 United Flight history → DSM 06:20 IAH 08:49 10% 6% 1.0% 91%
UA 6117 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record DSM 15:01 IAH 17:25 20% 8% 1.8% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor 3h 26m Detroit DTW 12:25 → IAH 14:32DL 1307 8h 24m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 52m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 2h 12m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673 6h 24m 93% 77%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 2h 39m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 6h 45m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → DSM 08:05 → ORD 09:35UA 2668 3h 05m Chicago ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448 7h 34m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor 2h 43m Detroit DTW 15:57 → IAH 18:03DL 1718 7h 38m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → DSM 14:45 → MSP 15:58DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor 2h 42m Minneapolis MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683 6h 50m 96% 74%
AmericanDetails → DSM 06:57 → ORD 08:33AA 4383 · flown by Republic 2h 07m Chicago ORD 10:40 → IAH 13:31AA 3322 6h 34m 100% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DSM 19:40 → DFW 21:47AA 2229 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → IAH 00:14 +1AA 3023 4h 34m 67% 40%
UnitedDetails → DSM 17:17 → DEN 18:23UA 1781 1h 12m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 5h 49m 62% 38%
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:08 → ORD 16:37UA 312 1h 11m Chicago ORD 17:48 → IAH 20:36UA 1921 5h 28m 66% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON