tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 654 Southwest DSM 12:00 LAS 13:08 15% 4% 0.6% no record
G4 122 Allegiant DSM 13:22 LAS 14:36 21% 8% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 2h 58m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 7h 36m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982 3h 06m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 53m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 8h 21m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor 3h 16m Detroit DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421 9h 20m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 2h 45m Minneapolis MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542 7h 16m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → DSM 18:03 → MSP 19:15DL 5020 · flown by Endeavor 2h 40m Minneapolis MSP 21:55 → LAS 23:16DL 1442 7h 13m 98% 69%
UnitedDetails → DSM 09:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1521 1h 02m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 5h 10m 87% 69%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor 3h 21m Detroit DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51DL 766 9h 26m 98% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DSM 17:17 → DEN 18:23UA 1781 1h 32m Denver DEN 19:55 → LAS 20:55UA 1953 5h 38m 72% 39%
AmericanDetails → DSM 19:40 → DFW 21:47AA 2229 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:44 → LAS 23:44AA 624 6h 04m 59% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON