tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 6409 at 18:58, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 6409 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → DSM 18:58 LAX 20:44 24% 10% 0.6% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DSM 07:08 → MSP 08:23DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 8h 15m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 10h 31m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982 3h 44m Houston IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460 9h 46m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:13 → DTW 13:03DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor 2h 47m Detroit DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883 9h 20m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:09DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 13:10 → LAX 15:04DL 2974 6h 10m 88% 73%
UnitedDetails → DSM 09:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1521 3h 06m Denver DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774 7h 43m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → DSM 07:04 → CLT 10:30AA 2854 2h 51m Charlotte CLT 13:21 → LAX 15:18AA 352 10h 14m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → DSM 14:45 → MSP 16:00DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor 2h 59m Minneapolis MSP 18:59 → LAX 20:51DL 2122 8h 06m 97% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DSM 15:06 → PHL 18:37AA 5479 · flown by PSA 59m Philadelphia PHL 19:36 → LAX 22:25AA 2252 9h 19m 72% 42%
UnitedDetails → DSM 17:17 → DEN 18:23UA 1781 1h 36m Denver DEN 19:59 → LAX 21:29UA 1460 6h 12m 74% 40%
AmericanDetails → DSM 19:40 → DFW 21:47AA 2229 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:43 → LAX 00:04 +1AA 2038 6h 24m 57% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON