Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 4795 at 07:01, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4795 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DSM 07:01	LGA 10:50	9%	3%	1.1%	82%
DL 4945 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DSM 07:33	LGA 11:18	25%	14%	4.5%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	8h 09m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:45 → MSP 15:58DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	4h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733	7h 55m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	3h 16m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LGA 14:03DL 1669	6h 55m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	1h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764	5h 55m	91%	78%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	7h 59m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	3h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732	7h 24m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	DSM 11:30 → ATL 14:43DL 1704	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	7h 57m	98%	72%
American Details →	DSM 06:57 → ORD 08:33AA 4383 · flown by Republic	1h 39m Chicago	ORD 10:12 → LGA 13:26AA 3128	5h 29m	100%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DSM 17:34 → DTW 20:27DL 5305 · flown by Endeavor	1h 23m Detroit	DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603	5h 06m	74%	59%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor	48m Detroit	DTW 14:02 → LGA 15:53DL 2602	4h 28m	65%	52%
United Details →	DSM 15:08 → ORD 16:37UA 312	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 17:57 → LGA 21:08UA 2458	5h 00m	69%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON