Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1837 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1837 Southwest	DSM 05:30	MDW 06:56	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1064 Southwest	DSM 16:50	MDW 18:15	31%	10%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 15m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	3h 26m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	6h 38m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	7h 50m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	3h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	6h 19m	96%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON