Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4383 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–49%.

Safest bet that day AA 4383 DSM 06:57 → ORD 08:33 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 2770 DSM 18:54 → ORD 20:30 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4383 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DSM 06:57	ORD 08:33	8%	3%	1.0%	100%
OO 6024 SkyWest	DSM 06:02	ORD 07:32	14%	6%	1.3%	no record
UA 2668 United Flight history →	DSM 08:05	ORD 09:35	15%	5%	0.7%	85%
OO 4955 SkyWest	DSM 10:36	ORD 12:04	22%	8%	1.6%	no record
UA 2769 United	DSM 11:52	ORD 13:21	23%	8%	0.8%	no record
OO 6040 SkyWest	DSM 13:22	ORD 14:50	40%	16%	2.6%	no record
OO 4928 SkyWest	DSM 20:08	ORD 21:37	40%	19%	4.0%	no record
OO 4933 SkyWest	DSM 14:54	ORD 16:34	42%	19%	5.8%	no record
YX 4769 Republic	DSM 17:56	ORD 19:32	46%	17%	4.6%	no record
UA 312 United Flight history →	DSM 15:08	ORD 16:37	48%	20%	2.0%	73%worse than usual
UA 2770 United	DSM 18:54	ORD 20:30	49%	22%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON