Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 6271 DSM 05:27 → PHX 06:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 4138 DSM 17:46 → PHX 19:03 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6271 SkyWest	DSM 05:27	PHX 06:34	8%	6%	0.9%	no record
OO 6262 SkyWest	DSM 14:18	PHX 15:25	14%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 1849 Southwest	DSM 14:15	PHX 15:19	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4138 Envoy	DSM 17:46	PHX 19:03	16%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON