Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Seattle, leaving 06:01, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 06:01 → SEA 07:57DL 732	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922	11h 16m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:35 → SEA 10:34DL 734	3h 06m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	11h 50m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936	11h 12m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	3h 01m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → ANC 20:14DL 2367	11h 45m	99%	69%
American Details →	DTW 11:36 → DFW 13:40AA 3101	1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:08 → ANC 19:09AA 399	11h 33m	94%	67%
Alaska Details →	DTW 17:31 → SEA 19:33AS 313	3h 19m Seattle	SEA 22:52 → ANC 01:25 +1AS 703	11h 54m	100%	63%
Delta Details →	DTW 20:06 → MSP 21:00DL 1303	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411	8h 53m	77%	62%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043	55m Houston	IAH 11:32 → ANC 15:52DL 8960	11h 12m	77%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	58m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	8h 40m	72%	54%
United Details →	DTW 14:10 → ORD 14:47UA 5381 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 16:02 → ANC 19:05UA 461	8h 55m	71%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON