Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2859 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2859 DTW 07:05 → BDL 08:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 2989 DTW 21:30 → BDL 23:14 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2859 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	BDL 08:48	6%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 2163 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:30	BDL 12:13	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2814 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:35	BDL 16:18	13%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 2989 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:30	BDL 23:14	19%	5%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON