Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2940 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 2940 DTW 05:40 → BWI 07:21 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1582 DTW 16:30 → BWI 18:11 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2940 Southwest	DTW 05:40	BWI 07:21	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2341 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:10	BWI 08:44	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 1546 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	BWI 11:47	8%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2480 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:05	BWI 16:41	16%	4%	0.7%	81%
F9 1516 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 12:50	BWI 14:26	20%	7%	0.8%	79%
DL 2715 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:45	BWI 23:18	21%	6%	0.9%	78%
WN 1582 Southwest	DTW 16:30	BWI 18:11	23%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON