Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5117 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 12:26	CHA 14:17	15%	5%	0.9%	76%
DL 4894 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 20:35	CHA 22:22	19%	5%	0.9%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 08:38 → CHA 09:37DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor	4h 20m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:33 → CHA 12:22DL 1737	6h 05m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:31 → ATL 12:27DL 2856	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 14:21 → CHA 15:20DL 4925 · flown by Endeavor	4h 49m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 13:13 → CHA 14:02DL 3141	6h 42m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 17:43 → CHA 18:42DL 5376 · flown by Endeavor	6h 17m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 19:35 → CHA 20:32DL 1722	5h 33m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:00 → LGA 11:45DL 2589	1h 30m New York	LGA 13:15 → CHA 15:31DL 4675 · flown by Endeavor	5h 31m	93%	71%
Delta Details →	DTW 15:59 → ATL 18:00DL 1467	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → CHA 22:12DL 1366	6h 13m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON