Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2481 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 2481 DTW 07:05 → CLT 08:52 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 660 DTW 20:05 → CLT 22:04 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2481 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	CLT 08:52	9%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 387 American Flight history →	DTW 06:00	CLT 07:51	10%	4%	1.3%	92%
AA 1439 American Flight history →	DTW 07:00	CLT 08:54	10%	4%	1.3%	94%
DL 2684 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:37	CLT 12:24	11%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 2582 American Flight history →	DTW 10:01	CLT 11:56	12%	4%	0.9%	90%
DL 1429 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:05	CLT 15:55	16%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 1683 American Flight history →	DTW 13:43	CLT 15:38	20%	4%	0.8%	83%
AA 2735 American Flight history →	DTW 16:39	CLT 18:36	26%	6%	0.8%	83%
DL 2352 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:05	CLT 21:57	27%	5%	0.7%	74%
AA 660 American Flight history →	DTW 20:05	CLT 22:04	28%	7%	0.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON