Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4707 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day YX 4707 DTW 05:55 → DCA 07:36 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2073 DTW 21:24 → DCA 22:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4707 Republic	DTW 05:55	DCA 07:36	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 1558 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	DCA 08:40	6%	3%	0.9%	81%
AA 5660 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 11:06	DCA 12:49	10%	5%	1.6%	80%
DL 2476 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:00	DCA 11:28	11%	3%	0.8%	87%
OH 5098 PSA	DTW 17:31	DCA 19:19	21%	8%	2.4%	no record
DL 1454 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:55	DCA 16:34	26%	7%	0.9%	51%
DL 2030 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:18	DCA 18:59	26%	7%	1.3%	59%
DL 2073 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:24	DCA 22:59	28%	8%	1.1%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON