Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2726 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2726 DTW 06:40 → DEN 07:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1844 DTW 15:55 → DEN 16:58 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2726 Southwest	DTW 06:40	DEN 07:42	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1113 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:40	DEN 09:47	9%	2%	0.6%	87%
UA 2302 United Flight history →	DTW 08:57	DEN 10:08	11%	4%	0.6%	94%
F9 2211 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 07:40	DEN 08:54	14%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 1648 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:42	DEN 13:45	15%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 1644 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:36	DEN 22:44	26%	4%	0.6%	72%
F9 3565 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 20:36	DEN 21:55	30%	6%	0.8%	85%worse than usual
UA 302 United Flight history →	DTW 15:32	DEN 16:45	32%	9%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
DL 2431 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:21	DEN 17:27	33%	6%	0.6%	72%
WN 1844 Southwest	DTW 15:55	DEN 16:58	37%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON