Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 3652 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 3652 DTW 06:00 → EWR 07:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1635 DTW 19:10 → EWR 20:52 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3652 United flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 06:00	EWR 07:45	5%	2%	1.4%	88%
DL 2566 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:15	EWR 08:58	6%	3%	1.1%	90%
UA 3706 United flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 11:14	EWR 13:04	8%	3%	1.8%	88%
DL 2577 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	EWR 11:56	11%	4%	1.3%	82%
YX 3681 Republic	DTW 13:04	EWR 15:03	19%	5%	2.5%	no record
YX 3692 Republic	DTW 16:42	EWR 18:55	20%	8%	2.6%	no record
DL 2609 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:40	EWR 23:25	22%	8%	1.2%	71%
YX 3433 Republic	DTW 15:07	EWR 17:19	23%	8%	1.9%	no record
DL 2573 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:10	EWR 15:54	26%	8%	1.1%	71%
DL 2567 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:44	EWR 19:30	40%	14%	1.3%	53%
UA 1635 United	DTW 19:10	EWR 20:52	41%	13%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON